A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

• Main Author: Yang Hyun M
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Universidade de São Paulo 2001-01-01
• Series: Revista de Saúde Pública
• Subjects: Malaria/transmission; Mathematical models; Greenhouse effect; Socioeconomic factors; Communicable disease control; Risk; Sensitivity analysis
• Online Access: http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102001000300002

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.