MOORE´S LAW EVALUATION AND PROPOSAL OF AN ALTERNATIVE FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON TREND EXTRAPOLATION

• Main Author: Marcelo D'Emidio
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Fundação Instituto de Administração 2010-06-01
• Series: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies
• Online Access: http://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/11

<p class="RF-resumo" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 18pt;"><span style="layout-grid-mode: line; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: small;">This study´s core objective is to validate whether the model proposed by Moore (1975) - also known as Moore’s Law – adequately describes the technological evolution of microprocessors. It further poses to verify whether this model is a feasible predictive tool and, finally, present an alternative model. To this extent, the forecasting technique method, based on historical data projections, will be applied. Statistical tests employed presented strong indications that the method proposed by Moore (1975) adequately described the evolution of processor component numbers during the 70s, 80s and 90s. As to the 2000s, however, the same cannot be affirmed and consequently the present study encountered grounding for the need to adapt the model to enable its application as a predictive tool.</span></span></p><p class="RF-resumo" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 18pt;"><span style="layout-grid-mode: line; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-US"></span><span style="font-size: small;"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-US">Key-words: </span></strong><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-US">Moore</span><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-US">’s<span style="layout-grid-mode: line;"> Law. Forecast. Technological evolution. </span></span></span></p><p> </p>