Distribution and Potential Limiting Factors of the European Pond Turtle (<i>Emys orbicularis</i>) in Eastern Europe

• Main Authors: Oksana Nekrasova, Oleksii Marushchak, Mihails Pupins, Arturs Skute, Volodymyr Tytar, Andris Čeirāns
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2021-06-01
• Series: Diversity
• Subjects: <i>Emys orbicularis</i>; distribution; invasive species; GIS modelling; changing of the climate
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/13/7/280

In order to use an integrated approach for studying the influence of risk factors on the distribution of the native turtle species <i>E. orbicularis</i> and accompanying invasive species (<i>T. scripta</i> and <i>N. procyonoides</i>) in the northeast of their range, we used GIS modelling and a database (GAEZ, human footprint, CliMond) of 55 preselected variables, which represent a system of bioclimatic and anthropogenic factors. The main variables that influenced the results were factors related to temperature. There was a high correlation (<i>r</i> = 0.6) between the species distribution model’s habitat suitability for <i>E. orbicularis</i> and the corresponding “human footprint” values within the European part of the species’ natural range. Its unpretentiousness towards anthropogenic factors would likely help the further expansion of its range in eastern Europe, because the areas with the highest habitat suitability (<i>r</i> > 0.7) were projected to increase 3.3-fold. When comparing the <i>E. orbicularis</i> model to those obtained for <i>N. procyonoides</i> and <i>T. scripta</i>, we concluded that <i>N. procyonoides</i> could be dangerous because it occupies similar habitats (the degree of correlation is reasonably high in the north of their range (<i>r</i> = 0.5) in Latvia). An expansion of the range of <i>Trachemys scripta</i> is also possible in the future within the northern territories. Therefore, when developing the turtles’ protection algorithms, it is also necessary to take into account the influence of invasive species.