El papel de la inversión en el crecimiento y desarrollo: el caso de la economía mexicana 1970-2004.

• Main Author: Bravo Benítez, Ernesto
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: ASEPUMA. Asociación Española de Profesores Universitarios de Matemáticas aplicadas a la Economía y a la Empresa 2014-04-01
• Series: Rect@
• Subjects: Trade-off effect; public investment; cointegration; Keynes; Mexican economy; liquidity trap.
• Online Access: http://urls.my/OapMfu

During the last years Mexican economy has gone through an intense process of accelerated changes that have brought adjustments on several spheres of economic life. Such is the case of the changing investment that tends to determinate the behavior of the GDP; in this sense knowing the determinants of the investment becomes important since it helps explain the economical behavior all together. The conventional economic theory explains the aggregated investment in function of the interest rate and the total sales or the GDP as a proxy variable, so the main debate revolves around the importance of these. This study pretends, for the Mexican case, to contrast some hypothesis, such as the one about investment not only depending on those variables but on other existing that also play an important roll determining it, such as the case of the public sector’s deficit. The results obtained through the structural autoregressive vectors’ technique and cointegration confirm such hypothesis, since the investment depends on the GDP and the fiscal deficit, but paradoxically it doesn’t depend on the interest rate, in opposition it does coincide with Keynes about the liquidity trap and the reason for governmental intervention through deficit spence; however, this results are confirmed only partially through structural econometrics, since according to this technique the public sector’s deficit turns out to be significant up to a 90% of trust but on the opposite sign, which shows a type of trade-off between the balance or fiscal deficit and the investment.