Modelling the evolution of Djankuat Glacier, North Caucasus, from 1752 until 2100 CE
<p>We use a numerical flow line model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a World Glacier Monitoring Service reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–21...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-11-01
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| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/4039/2020/tc-14-4039-2020.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>We use a numerical flow line model to simulate the
behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a World Glacier Monitoring Service reference glacier situated in the
North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in
response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE).
The model consists of a coupled ice flow–mass balance model that also
takes into account the evolution of a supraglacial debris cover. After
simulation of the past retreat by applying a dynamic calibration procedure,
the model was forced with data for the future period under different
scenarios regarding temperature, precipitation and debris input. The main
results show that the glacier length and surface area have decreased by ca.
1.4 km (ca. <span class="inline-formula">−29.5</span> %) and ca. 1.6 km<span class="inline-formula"><sup>2</sup></span> (<span class="inline-formula">−35.2</span> %)
respectively between the initial state in 1752 CE and present-day
conditions. Some minor stabilization and/or readvancements of the glacier
have occurred, but the general trend shows an almost continuous retreat
since the 1850s. Future projections using CMIP5 temperature and
precipitation data exhibit a further decline of the glacier. Under constant
present-day climate conditions, its length and surface area will further
shrink by ca. 30 % by 2100 CE. However, even under the most extreme RCP 8.5 scenario, the glacier will not have disappeared completely by the end of the modelling period. The presence of an increasingly widespread
supraglacial debris cover is shown to significantly delay glacier retreat,
depending on the interaction between the prevailing climatic conditions, the
debris input location, the debris mass flux magnitude and the time of
release of debris sources from the surrounding topography.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |