Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump

The Issues and Leaders model predicts the national popular two-party vote in US presidential elections from people’s perceptions of the candidates’ issue-handling competence and leadership qualities. In previous elections from 1972 to 2012, the model’s Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote s...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Andreas Graefe
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SAGE Publishing 2016-11-01
Series:Research & Politics
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168016679364
id doaj-b31d92810eb549b49f84b3ebf6da3c26
record_format Article
spelling doaj-b31d92810eb549b49f84b3ebf6da3c262020-11-25T03:24:07ZengSAGE PublishingResearch & Politics2053-16802016-11-01310.1177/205316801667936410.1177_2053168016679364Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat TrumpAndreas GraefeThe Issues and Leaders model predicts the national popular two-party vote in US presidential elections from people’s perceptions of the candidates’ issue-handling competence and leadership qualities. In previous elections from 1972 to 2012, the model’s Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote shares by, on average, little more than one percentage point and thus reduced the error of the Gallup pre-election poll by 30%. This research note presents the model’s forecast prior to the 2016 election, when most polls show that voters view Republican candidate Donald Trump as the stronger leader but prefer the Democrat’s nominee Hillary Clinton when it comes to dealing with the issues. A month prior to Election Day, the model predicts that Clinton will win by four points, gaining 52.0% of the two-party vote.https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168016679364
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Andreas Graefe
spellingShingle Andreas Graefe
Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump
Research & Politics
author_facet Andreas Graefe
author_sort Andreas Graefe
title Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump
title_short Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump
title_full Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump
title_fullStr Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump
title_full_unstemmed Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump
title_sort issue-handling beats leadership: issues and leaders model predicts clinton will defeat trump
publisher SAGE Publishing
series Research & Politics
issn 2053-1680
publishDate 2016-11-01
description The Issues and Leaders model predicts the national popular two-party vote in US presidential elections from people’s perceptions of the candidates’ issue-handling competence and leadership qualities. In previous elections from 1972 to 2012, the model’s Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote shares by, on average, little more than one percentage point and thus reduced the error of the Gallup pre-election poll by 30%. This research note presents the model’s forecast prior to the 2016 election, when most polls show that voters view Republican candidate Donald Trump as the stronger leader but prefer the Democrat’s nominee Hillary Clinton when it comes to dealing with the issues. A month prior to Election Day, the model predicts that Clinton will win by four points, gaining 52.0% of the two-party vote.
url https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168016679364
work_keys_str_mv AT andreasgraefe issuehandlingbeatsleadershipissuesandleadersmodelpredictsclintonwilldefeattrump
_version_ 1724603244914671616