On the uncertainties of monitoring subsidence from small sources: Dutch mining regulation on subsidence monitoring and its role in communication and accountability
<p>Mining induced subsidence in the Netherlands is often associated with small gas fields (less than 5 km diameter), or discrete sources (converging salt caverns). As most of the areas experiencing this subsidence are close to sea level, and the effects of gas exploitation in Gronin...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-04-01
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| Series: | Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.proc-iahs.net/382/531/2020/piahs-382-531-2020.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Mining induced subsidence in the Netherlands is often
associated with small gas fields (less than 5 km diameter), or discrete
sources (converging salt caverns). As most of the areas experiencing this
subsidence are close to sea level, and the effects of gas exploitation in
Groningen may be considered a national trauma, there is strong emphasis on
control and regulation of the related mining activities and their effects at
the surface. The relatively small subsidence (often less than 10 cm),
combined with inherent prediction uncertainty involving geological
parameters, introduces a monitoring challenge to both mining companies and
the regulator. A large initial uncertainty can be reduced during production
by a carefully designed monitoring strategy, including evaluation of the
results and clear communication on the effects on the uncertainty of the
prognosis. In the same process, one may quantify remaining uncertainties and
the limitations on predictability. In this contribution, we discuss the
nature of some specific uncertainties associated with small source
subsidence, and the effects on the regulatory process. The description is
based on a realistic assessment of the expected accuracy of subsidence
predictions. This allows for a clean comparison between different
measurement techniques, and may help prevent overly optimistic claims on
predictability. A description of uncertainty in terms of scenarios and
parameter sensitivity studies should be used in communicating the expected
level of subsidence control to water management boards and the general
public.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 2199-8981 2199-899X |