| Summary: | Frequent fire accidents pose a serious threat to human life and property. The spatio-temporal features of China’s urban fires, and their drivers should be investigated. Based on the Spatio-temporal Dynamic panel data Model (SDM), and using fire data gathered from 337 Chinese cities in 2000 to 2009, the influence of spatio-temporal factors on the frequency of urban fires was analyzed. The results show that (1) the overall fire incidence of China increased annually before 2002 and reduced significantly after 2003, and then high fire incidence increased in western China; (2) Spatio-temporal factors play a significant role in the frequency of Chinese urban fires; specifically, the fire assimilation effect, fire inertia effect and fire caution effect. The ratio of fire incidence of China has reduced significantly, and the focus of fire incidence moved towards the western region of China. GDP and humidity have a significant effect on urban fire situation change in China, and these effects may be referred to as “fire assimilation effects”, “fire inertia effects” and “fire caution effects”.
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