A Microanalytical Simulation Model to Predict the Long-Term Evolution of Employment Biographies in Austria: The Demographics Module

• Main Authors: Marcus Wurzer, Reinhold Hatzinger
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Austrian Statistical Society 2016-04-01
• Series: Austrian Journal of Statistics
• Online Access: http://www.ajs.or.at/index.php/ajs/article/view/277

The well-known problems of decreasing birth rates and population ageing represent a major challenge for the Austrian pension system. It is expected that the group of pensioners will grow steadily in the future, while the proportion of people that support them – the taxpayers – will shrink. In this regard, microsimulation provides a valuable tool to identify the impact of various policy measures. With microsimulation, it is not only possible to predict cross-sectional data (e.g., the distribution of age groups in 2050), but also to simulate lifecourses of people, providing longitudinal outcomes. The demographics module is the first in a series of modules that are part of a microsimulation prototype. This prototype is being developed in order to predict the long-term evolution of Employment Biographies in Austria.