A Microanalytical Simulation Model to Predict the Long-Term Evolution of Employment Biographies in Austria: The Demographics Module

The well-known problems of decreasing birth rates and population ageing represent a major challenge for the Austrian pension system. It is expected that the group of pensioners will grow steadily in the future, while the proportion of people that support them – the taxpayers – will shrink. In this r...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Marcus Wurzer, Reinhold Hatzinger
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Austrian Statistical Society 2016-04-01
Series:Austrian Journal of Statistics
Online Access:http://www.ajs.or.at/index.php/ajs/article/view/277
Description
Summary:The well-known problems of decreasing birth rates and population ageing represent a major challenge for the Austrian pension system. It is expected that the group of pensioners will grow steadily in the future, while the proportion of people that support them – the taxpayers – will shrink. In this regard, microsimulation provides a valuable tool to identify the impact of various policy measures. With microsimulation, it is not only possible to predict cross-sectional data (e.g., the distribution of age groups in 2050), but also to simulate lifecourses of people, providing longitudinal outcomes. The demographics module is the first in a series of modules that are part of a microsimulation prototype. This prototype is being developed in order to predict the long-term evolution of Employment Biographies in Austria.
ISSN:1026-597X