| Summary: | Assessing the impacts of future land use scenarios on ecosystem services can provide theoretical basis and reference for sustainable land use management. This study combined scenario analysis and quantitative assessment to monitor land use and ecosystem services in the intensive agricultural area of Qixia city, North China under three different scenarios, i.e. natural development, farmland and orchard to forest and farmland to forest and orchard, by using the GeoSoS-FLUS and the InVEST models. The integrated land use change impact index (ILUCII) and the single land use change impact index (SLUCII) were proposed to quantitatively depict the impact of different land use change scenarios on ecosystem services. The results demonstrated that: (1) Under the three land use scenarios, forest, farmland and orchard show different change patterns. Slope influences the soil and water conservation services, land use in greater than 15° slope section occupied more soil and water conservation services than 12–15° section and less than 12° section. In the same slope section, forest had the most soil and water conservation services compared with orchard and farmland. (2) The effects of different land use conversion on soil conservation services per study grid (90*90 m) in less than 12° slope section showed an order of farmland-forest > orchard-forest > farmland-orchard. In more than 12° slope section, the order is farmland-forest > farmland-orchard > orchard-forest. The effects of land use conversion on water conservation services per grid is farmland - forest > orchard - forest > farmland-orchard. (3) The total ILUCII on ecosystem services found that farmland and orchard to forest scenario (16517.54) > farmland to forest and orchard scenario (13074.12) > natural development scenario (−4975.02). The mean ILUCII on ecosystem services showed that farmland to forest and orchard scenario (0.63) > farmland and orchard to forest scenario (0.53) > natural development scenario (−0.11). The mean SLUCII on ecosystem services found that greater than 15° farmland to forest (0.89) > 12–15°farmland to orchard (0.49) > greater than 15°orchard to forest (0.34).
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