Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus

The purpose of this study is the verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus. The verification period spans from 1 January 2007 till 31 December 2007 and the parameters studied are: temperature, wind and precipitation. The model forecasts are compared to the observatio...

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Main Authors:	K. Savvidou, K. Lagouvardos, S. Michaelides, V. Kotroni, P. Constantinides
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Copernicus Publications 2010-10-01
Series:	Advances in Geosciences
Online Access:	http://www.adv-geosci.net/23/93/2010/adgeo-23-93-2010.pdf

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spelling	doaj-acdae84238944ccda55eff3fea247c042020-11-24T22:41:23ZengCopernicus PublicationsAdvances in Geosciences1680-73401680-73592010-10-01239310010.5194/adgeo-23-93-2010Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of CyprusK. Savvidou0K. Lagouvardos1S. Michaelides2V. Kotroni3P. Constantinides4Meteorological Service, Nicosia, CyprusNational Observatory of Athens, Athens, GreeceMeteorological Service, Nicosia, CyprusNational Observatory of Athens, Athens, GreeceMeteorological Service, Nicosia, CyprusThe purpose of this study is the verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus. The verification period spans from 1 January 2007 till 31 December 2007 and the parameters studied are: temperature, wind and precipitation. The model forecasts are compared to the observations recorded at three locations on the island, where Automatic Weather Observing Systems are operated by the Meteorological Service of Cyprus, namely, those of Larnaka and Paphos Airports and at Athalassa. The statistical analysis includes calculation of the mean error, the mean absolute error and the standard deviation. Based on the construction of a contingency table, the probability of detection of a precipitation event and the false alarm rate are calculated. Finally, an example of BOLAM forecasts for a case study of a low pressure affecting Cyprus during winter is presented and discussed.http://www.adv-geosci.net/23/93/2010/adgeo-23-93-2010.pdf
collection	DOAJ
language	English
format	Article
sources	DOAJ
author	K. Savvidou K. Lagouvardos S. Michaelides V. Kotroni P. Constantinides
spellingShingle	K. Savvidou K. Lagouvardos S. Michaelides V. Kotroni P. Constantinides Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus Advances in Geosciences
author_facet	K. Savvidou K. Lagouvardos S. Michaelides V. Kotroni P. Constantinides
author_sort	K. Savvidou
title	Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus
title_short	Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus
title_full	Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus
title_fullStr	Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus
title_full_unstemmed	Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus
title_sort	verification of the bolam weather prediction model over the area of cyprus
publisher	Copernicus Publications
series	Advances in Geosciences
issn	1680-7340 1680-7359
publishDate	2010-10-01
description	The purpose of this study is the verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus. The verification period spans from 1 January 2007 till 31 December 2007 and the parameters studied are: temperature, wind and precipitation. The model forecasts are compared to the observations recorded at three locations on the island, where Automatic Weather Observing Systems are operated by the Meteorological Service of Cyprus, namely, those of Larnaka and Paphos Airports and at Athalassa. The statistical analysis includes calculation of the mean error, the mean absolute error and the standard deviation. Based on the construction of a contingency table, the probability of detection of a precipitation event and the false alarm rate are calculated. Finally, an example of BOLAM forecasts for a case study of a low pressure affecting Cyprus during winter is presented and discussed.
url	http://www.adv-geosci.net/23/93/2010/adgeo-23-93-2010.pdf
work_keys_str_mv	AT ksavvidou verificationofthebolamweatherpredictionmodelovertheareaofcyprus AT klagouvardos verificationofthebolamweatherpredictionmodelovertheareaofcyprus AT smichaelides verificationofthebolamweatherpredictionmodelovertheareaofcyprus AT vkotroni verificationofthebolamweatherpredictionmodelovertheareaofcyprus AT pconstantinides verificationofthebolamweatherpredictionmodelovertheareaofcyprus
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Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus

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