Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus
The purpose of this study is the verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus. The verification period spans from 1 January 2007 till 31 December 2007 and the parameters studied are: temperature, wind and precipitation. The model forecasts are compared to the observatio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2010-10-01
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| Series: | Advances in Geosciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.adv-geosci.net/23/93/2010/adgeo-23-93-2010.pdf |
| Summary: | The purpose of this study is the verification of the
BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus. The verification
period spans from 1 January 2007 till 31 December 2007 and the parameters
studied are: temperature, wind and precipitation. The model forecasts are
compared to the observations recorded at three locations on the island,
where Automatic Weather Observing Systems are operated by the Meteorological
Service of Cyprus, namely, those of Larnaka and Paphos Airports and at
Athalassa. The statistical analysis includes calculation of the mean error,
the mean absolute error and the standard deviation. Based on the
construction of a contingency table, the probability of detection of a
precipitation event and the false alarm rate are calculated. Finally, an
example of BOLAM forecasts for a case study of a low pressure affecting
Cyprus during winter is presented and discussed. |
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| ISSN: | 1680-7340 1680-7359 |