The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models

The potential distribution of the invasive plant <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the pr...

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Main Authors:	Xuhui Zhang, Haiyan Wei, Zefang Zhao, Jing Liu, Quanzhong Zhang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Wei Gu
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	MDPI AG 2020-02-01
Series:	Sustainability
Subjects:	invasive <i>anredera cordifolia</i> (tenore) steenis climate scenarios potential distribution change habitat
Online Access:	https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/4/1491

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spelling	doaj-acc19ecdee2c4a41b73126f4cbc7d5fb2020-11-25T02:36:04ZengMDPI AGSustainability2071-10502020-02-01124149110.3390/su12041491su12041491The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest ModelsXuhui Zhang0Haiyan Wei1Zefang Zhao2Jing Liu3Quanzhong Zhang4Xiaoyan Zhang5Wei Gu6School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, ChinaSchool of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, ChinaSchool of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, ChinaSchool of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, ChinaSchool of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, ChinaSchool of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, ChinaNational Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest of China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, ChinaThe potential distribution of the invasive plant <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of <i>A. cordifolia</i>. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 °C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 °C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 °C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 °C), temperature annual range (10.7 °C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 °C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 °C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 °C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 °C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 °C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of <i>A. cordifolia</i> will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of <i>A. cordifolia</i>.https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/4/1491invasive<i>anredera cordifolia</i> (tenore) steenisclimate scenariospotential distribution changehabitat
collection	DOAJ
language	English
format	Article
sources	DOAJ
author	Xuhui Zhang Haiyan Wei Zefang Zhao Jing Liu Quanzhong Zhang Xiaoyan Zhang Wei Gu
spellingShingle	Xuhui Zhang Haiyan Wei Zefang Zhao Jing Liu Quanzhong Zhang Xiaoyan Zhang Wei Gu The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models Sustainability invasive <i>anredera cordifolia</i> (tenore) steenis climate scenarios potential distribution change habitat
author_facet	Xuhui Zhang Haiyan Wei Zefang Zhao Jing Liu Quanzhong Zhang Xiaoyan Zhang Wei Gu
author_sort	Xuhui Zhang
title	The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models
title_short	The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models
title_full	The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models
title_fullStr	The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models
title_full_unstemmed	The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models
title_sort	global potential distribution of invasive plants: <i>anredera cordifolia</i> under climate change and human activity based on random forest models
publisher	MDPI AG
series	Sustainability
issn	2071-1050
publishDate	2020-02-01
description	The potential distribution of the invasive plant <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of <i>A. cordifolia</i>. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 °C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 °C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 °C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 °C), temperature annual range (10.7 °C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 °C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 °C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 °C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 °C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 °C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of <i>A. cordifolia</i> will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of <i>A. cordifolia</i>.
topic	invasive <i>anredera cordifolia</i> (tenore) steenis climate scenarios potential distribution change habitat
url	https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/4/1491
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The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: <i>Anredera cordifolia</i> under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models

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