Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.

Naturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large num...

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Main Authors: Daisy Englert Duursma, Rachael V Gallagher, Erin Roger, Lesley Hughes, Paul O Downey, Michelle R Leishman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3873406?pdf=render
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spelling doaj-ac4e96a7b492417083a671f6cf572b432020-11-25T01:22:06ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032013-01-01812e8422210.1371/journal.pone.0084222Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.Daisy Englert DuursmaRachael V GallagherErin RogerLesley HughesPaul O DowneyMichelle R LeishmanNaturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large number of potentially invasive plants will help to target monitoring, and is vital for effective control. We used species distribution models (SDM) and invasion-hotspot analysis to determine where in Australia suitable habitat may occur for 292 naturalised plants. SDMs were built in MaxEnt using both climate and soil variables for current baseline conditions. Modelled relationships were projected onto two Representative Concentration Pathways for future climates (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), based on seven global climate models, for two time periods (2035, 2065). Model outputs for each of the 292 species were then aggregated into single 'hotspot' maps at two scales: continental, and for each of Australia's 37 ecoregions. Across Australia, areas in the south-east and south-west corners of the continent were identified as potential hotspots for naturalised plants under current and future climates. These regions provided suitable habitat for 288 and 239 species respectively under baseline climates. The areal extent of the continental hotspot was projected to decrease by 8.8% under climates for 2035, and by a further 5.2% by 2065. A similar pattern of hotspot contraction under future climates was seen for the majority of ecoregions examined. However, two ecoregions - Tasmanian temperate forests and Australian Alps montane grasslands - showed increases in the areal extent of hotspots of >45% under climate scenarios for 2065. The alpine ecoregion also had an increase in the number of naturalised plant species with abiotically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, indicating that this area may be particularly vulnerable to future incursions by naturalised plants.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3873406?pdf=render
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Daisy Englert Duursma
Rachael V Gallagher
Erin Roger
Lesley Hughes
Paul O Downey
Michelle R Leishman
spellingShingle Daisy Englert Duursma
Rachael V Gallagher
Erin Roger
Lesley Hughes
Paul O Downey
Michelle R Leishman
Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.
PLoS ONE
author_facet Daisy Englert Duursma
Rachael V Gallagher
Erin Roger
Lesley Hughes
Paul O Downey
Michelle R Leishman
author_sort Daisy Englert Duursma
title Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.
title_short Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.
title_full Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.
title_fullStr Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.
title_full_unstemmed Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.
title_sort next-generation invaders? hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in australia under future climates.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
series PLoS ONE
issn 1932-6203
publishDate 2013-01-01
description Naturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large number of potentially invasive plants will help to target monitoring, and is vital for effective control. We used species distribution models (SDM) and invasion-hotspot analysis to determine where in Australia suitable habitat may occur for 292 naturalised plants. SDMs were built in MaxEnt using both climate and soil variables for current baseline conditions. Modelled relationships were projected onto two Representative Concentration Pathways for future climates (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), based on seven global climate models, for two time periods (2035, 2065). Model outputs for each of the 292 species were then aggregated into single 'hotspot' maps at two scales: continental, and for each of Australia's 37 ecoregions. Across Australia, areas in the south-east and south-west corners of the continent were identified as potential hotspots for naturalised plants under current and future climates. These regions provided suitable habitat for 288 and 239 species respectively under baseline climates. The areal extent of the continental hotspot was projected to decrease by 8.8% under climates for 2035, and by a further 5.2% by 2065. A similar pattern of hotspot contraction under future climates was seen for the majority of ecoregions examined. However, two ecoregions - Tasmanian temperate forests and Australian Alps montane grasslands - showed increases in the areal extent of hotspots of >45% under climate scenarios for 2065. The alpine ecoregion also had an increase in the number of naturalised plant species with abiotically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, indicating that this area may be particularly vulnerable to future incursions by naturalised plants.
url http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3873406?pdf=render
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