Analysis of Long-Run GDP Development in the USA, the EU15, China and the USSR/Russia

• Main Authors: Jiří Mihola, Petr Wawrosz
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Czech Statistical Office 2014-12-01
• Series: Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal
• Subjects: Intensive and extensive economic growth; dynamic parameter of intensity; dynamic parameter of extensity; measurement of intensity
• Online Access: http://www.czso.cz/csu/2014edicniplan.nsf/engc/B00044A210/$File/32019714q4015.pdf

The paper analyses how changes in GDP in China, the USA, the EU15 and the USSR/Russia over a period of 50 years (1961–2011) were aff ected by change of intensive factors and change of extensive factors. Intensive factors consist primarily of technological progress. Extensive factors are the amounts of labour and capital. The analysis does not use growth accounting, but instead works with the ‘dynamic parameters’ of intensity and extensity. Contrary to the values of growth accounting, these parameters can be calculated not only for situations of GDP growth, but also for situations of GDP contraction and stagnation. They thus provide a komplete picture of GDP development. The paper briefl y explains the methodology for deriving the parameters. Their values for each territory are then analysed. The results show that the parameters are able to describe the real development of GDP and their information value is very high.