Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1)
<p>Over the past 20 years, analyzing the abundance of the isotope chlorine-36 (<sup>36</sup>Cl) has emerged as a popular tool for geologic dating. In particular, it has been observed that <sup>36</sup>Cl measurements along a fault plane can be used to study the timi...
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doaj-ab79bffd08ff49c2bd477ec2dfcedca52020-11-24T21:25:18ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032018-11-01114383439710.5194/gmd-11-4383-2018Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1)J. Beck0S. Wolfers1G. P. Roberts2Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences & Engineering (CEMSE), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi ArabiaComputer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences & Engineering (CEMSE), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Birkbeck College, University of London, WC1E 7HX, UK<p>Over the past 20 years, analyzing the abundance of the isotope chlorine-36 (<sup>36</sup>Cl) has emerged as a popular tool for geologic dating. In particular, it has been observed that <sup>36</sup>Cl measurements along a fault plane can be used to study the timings of past ground displacements during earthquakes, which in turn can be used to improve existing seismic hazard assessment. This approach requires accurate simulations of <sup>36</sup>Cl accumulation for a set of fault-scarp rock samples, which are progressively exhumed during earthquakes, in order to infer displacement histories from <sup>36</sup>Cl measurements. While the physical models underlying such simulations have continuously been improved, the inverse problem of recovering displacement histories from <sup>36</sup>Cl measurements is still mostly solved on an ad hoc basis. The current work resolves this situation by providing a MATLAB implementation of a fast, automatic, and flexible Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the inverse problem, and provides a validation of the <sup>36</sup>Cl approach to inference of earthquakes from the demise of the Last Glacial Maximum until present. To demonstrate its performance, we apply our algorithm to a synthetic case to verify identifiability, and to the Fiamignano and Frattura faults in the Italian Apennines in order to infer their earthquake displacement histories and to provide seismic hazard assessments. The results suggest high variability in slip rates for both faults, and large displacements on the Fiamignano fault at times when the Colosseum and other ancient buildings in Rome were damaged.</p>https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/4383/2018/gmd-11-4383-2018.pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
J. Beck S. Wolfers G. P. Roberts |
spellingShingle |
J. Beck S. Wolfers G. P. Roberts Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1) Geoscientific Model Development |
author_facet |
J. Beck S. Wolfers G. P. Roberts |
author_sort |
J. Beck |
title |
Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1) |
title_short |
Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1) |
title_full |
Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1) |
title_fullStr |
Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1) |
title_sort |
bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (bed v1) |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Geoscientific Model Development |
issn |
1991-959X 1991-9603 |
publishDate |
2018-11-01 |
description |
<p>Over the past 20 years,
analyzing the abundance of the isotope chlorine-36 (<sup>36</sup>Cl) has emerged
as a popular tool for geologic dating. In particular, it has been observed
that <sup>36</sup>Cl measurements along a fault plane can be used to study the
timings of past ground displacements during earthquakes, which in turn can be
used to improve existing seismic hazard assessment. This approach requires
accurate simulations of <sup>36</sup>Cl accumulation for a set of fault-scarp
rock samples, which are progressively exhumed during earthquakes, in order to
infer displacement histories from <sup>36</sup>Cl measurements. While the
physical models underlying such simulations have continuously been improved,
the inverse problem of recovering displacement histories from <sup>36</sup>Cl
measurements is still mostly solved on an ad hoc basis. The current work
resolves this situation by providing a MATLAB implementation of a fast,
automatic, and flexible Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the
inverse problem, and provides a validation of the <sup>36</sup>Cl approach to
inference of earthquakes from the demise of the Last Glacial Maximum until
present. To demonstrate its performance, we apply our algorithm to a
synthetic case to verify identifiability, and to the Fiamignano and Frattura
faults in the Italian Apennines in order to infer their earthquake
displacement histories and to provide seismic hazard assessments. The results
suggest high variability in slip rates for both faults, and large
displacements on the Fiamignano fault at times when the Colosseum and other
ancient buildings in Rome were damaged.</p> |
url |
https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/4383/2018/gmd-11-4383-2018.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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