IS IT POSSIBLE TO DIP INTO THE FUTURE? (FORECASTING OF SOCIAL PROCESSES)

• Main Author: V. D. Solovey
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MGIMO University Press 2017-09-01
• Series: Концепт: философия, религия, культура
• Subjects: prophecy; prediction; scientific prognosis; divination; scientific knowledge; divination system; extrapolation; statistical regularity; historical tendency; psychological assurance
• Online Access: https://concept.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/86

The article is devoted to the possibility of social prognosis. Three types of prognosis (prophecy, prediction, scientific prognosis) are characterized and compared with each other, highlighting both similarities and dissimilarities between them. The article states that the question of predictive power of different divination methods does not have a satisfactory answer. Precise divinations and horoscopes are based on Convexity effect: successful predictions are well-remembered, while unsuccessful are forgotten. Society’s demand for divinations is caused by its complexity and high dynamism of changes. A man facing fundamental uncertainty tries to grasp Ariadne’s thread of certainty in a surrounding chaos. It doesn’t matter if an inquirer really receives knowledge about the future or it is just an illusion, in any way it provides him with necessary psychological assurance. Scientific prognostications are slightly different from unscientific divinations in terms of their predictive powers and quality. Those successful prognoses that we have are based on extrapolation and statistical regularity. At the same time science is unable to foresee accidental or unlikely, but highly important events, black swans. Extrapolation of historical tendencies and the usage of statistical regularities is the analytical limit of today’s scientific knowledge. Even though such turning points are vital for societies, nations and individuals, we are unable to predict them. At the same time scientific prognostication, not unlike different methods of divination, possesses an important psychotherapeutic effect, generating an illusion of control over one’s future.