Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No

Conventional wisdom dictates that the more we know about a problem domain the easier it is to predict the effects of policies in that domain. Strangely, this wisdom is not sanctioned by formal analysis, when the notions of “knowledge” and “policy” are given concrete definitions in the context of non...

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Main Author:	Pearl Judea
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	De Gruyter 2014-03-01
Series:	Journal of Causal Inference
Subjects:	policy evaluation transportability causal effects identification instrumental variables
Online Access:	https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2014-0017

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spelling	doaj-aacb909e550e4b0e8d9979caf28eaa3d2021-09-06T19:40:28ZengDe GruyterJournal of Causal Inference2193-36772193-36852014-03-012110911210.1515/jci-2014-0017Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: NoPearl Judea0Department of Computer Science, University of California – Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90095-1596, USAConventional wisdom dictates that the more we know about a problem domain the easier it is to predict the effects of policies in that domain. Strangely, this wisdom is not sanctioned by formal analysis, when the notions of “knowledge” and “policy” are given concrete definitions in the context of nonparametric causal analysis. This note describes this peculiarity and speculates on its implications.https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2014-0017policy evaluationtransportabilitycausal effectsidentificationinstrumental variables
collection	DOAJ
language	English
format	Article
sources	DOAJ
author	Pearl Judea
spellingShingle	Pearl Judea Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No Journal of Causal Inference policy evaluation transportability causal effects identification instrumental variables
author_facet	Pearl Judea
author_sort	Pearl Judea
title	Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No
title_short	Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No
title_full	Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No
title_fullStr	Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No
title_full_unstemmed	Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No
title_sort	is scientific knowledge useful for policy analysis? a peculiar theorem says: no
publisher	De Gruyter
series	Journal of Causal Inference
issn	2193-3677 2193-3685
publishDate	2014-03-01
description	Conventional wisdom dictates that the more we know about a problem domain the easier it is to predict the effects of policies in that domain. Strangely, this wisdom is not sanctioned by formal analysis, when the notions of “knowledge” and “policy” are given concrete definitions in the context of nonparametric causal analysis. This note describes this peculiarity and speculates on its implications.
topic	policy evaluation transportability causal effects identification instrumental variables
url	https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2014-0017
work_keys_str_mv	AT pearljudea isscientificknowledgeusefulforpolicyanalysisapeculiartheoremsaysno
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Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No

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