The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China

The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China

Objectives: We aimed to estimate the time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China, Wuhan City, and Guangdong province, and compare to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Methods: Data on COVID-19 cases in China up to 20 March 2020 was collected from epidemiological investiga...

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Main Authors: Jianpeng Xiao, Jianxiong Hu, Guanhao He, Tao Liu, Min Kang, Zuhua Rong, Lifeng Lin, Haojie Zhong, Qiong Huang, Aiping Deng, Weilin Zeng, Xiaohua Tan, Siqing Zeng, Zhihua Zhu, Jiansen Li, Dexin Gong, Donghua Wan, Shaowei Chen, Lingchuan Guo, Yihan Li, Yan Li, Limei Sun, Wenjia Liang, Tie Song, Jianfeng He, Wenjun Ma
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2021-02-01
Series:International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Subjects:
COVID-19
SARS
China
Time-varying reproduction number
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122032316X
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language English
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author Jianpeng Xiao
Jianxiong Hu
Guanhao He
Tao Liu
Min Kang
Zuhua Rong
Lifeng Lin
Haojie Zhong
Qiong Huang
Aiping Deng
Weilin Zeng
Xiaohua Tan
Siqing Zeng
Zhihua Zhu
Jiansen Li
Dexin Gong
Donghua Wan
Shaowei Chen
Lingchuan Guo
Yihan Li
Yan Li
Limei Sun
Wenjia Liang
Tie Song
Jianfeng He
Wenjun Ma
spellingShingle Jianpeng Xiao
Jianxiong Hu
Guanhao He
Tao Liu
Min Kang
Zuhua Rong
Lifeng Lin
Haojie Zhong
Qiong Huang
Aiping Deng
Weilin Zeng
Xiaohua Tan
Siqing Zeng
Zhihua Zhu
Jiansen Li
Dexin Gong
Donghua Wan
Shaowei Chen
Lingchuan Guo
Yihan Li
Yan Li
Limei Sun
Wenjia Liang
Tie Song
Jianfeng He
Wenjun Ma
The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
COVID-19
SARS
China
Time-varying reproduction number
author_facet Jianpeng Xiao
Jianxiong Hu
Guanhao He
Tao Liu
Min Kang
Zuhua Rong
Lifeng Lin
Haojie Zhong
Qiong Huang
Aiping Deng
Weilin Zeng
Xiaohua Tan
Siqing Zeng
Zhihua Zhu
Jiansen Li
Dexin Gong
Donghua Wan
Shaowei Chen
Lingchuan Guo
Yihan Li
Yan Li
Limei Sun
Wenjia Liang
Tie Song
Jianfeng He
Wenjun Ma
author_sort Jianpeng Xiao
title The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China
title_short The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China
title_full The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China
title_fullStr The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China
title_full_unstemmed The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China
title_sort time-varying transmission dynamics of covid-19 and synchronous public health interventions in china
publisher Elsevier
series International Journal of Infectious Diseases
issn 1201-9712
publishDate 2021-02-01
description Objectives: We aimed to estimate the time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China, Wuhan City, and Guangdong province, and compare to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Methods: Data on COVID-19 cases in China up to 20 March 2020 was collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on SARS cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing, and Hong Kong during 2002–3 was also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R0), and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 and SARS. Results: As of 20 March 2020, 80,739 locally acquired COVID-19 cases were identified in mainland China, with most cases reported between 20 January and 29 February 2020. The R0 value of COVID-19 in China and Wuhan was 5.0 and 4.8, respectively, which was greater than the R0 value of SARS in Guangdong (R0 = 2.3), Hong Kong (R0 = 2.3), and Beijing (R0 = 2.6). At the start of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Rt value in China peaked at 8.4 and then declined quickly to below 1.0 in one month. With SARS, the Rt curve saw fluctuations with more than one peak, the highest peak was lower than that for COVID-19. Conclusions: COVID-19 has much higher transmissibility than SARS, however, a series of prevention and control interventions to suppress the outbreak were effective. Sustained efforts are needed to prevent the rebound of the epidemic in the context of the global pandemic.
topic COVID-19
SARS
China
Time-varying reproduction number
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122032316X
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spelling doaj-a8c378f4940847a295390a2886dec4e92021-02-07T04:21:13ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122021-02-01103617623The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in ChinaJianpeng Xiao0Jianxiong Hu1Guanhao He2Tao Liu3Min Kang4Zuhua Rong5Lifeng Lin6Haojie Zhong7Qiong Huang8Aiping Deng9Weilin Zeng10Xiaohua Tan11Siqing Zeng12Zhihua Zhu13Jiansen Li14Dexin Gong15Donghua Wan16Shaowei Chen17Lingchuan Guo18Yihan Li19Yan Li20Limei Sun21Wenjia Liang22Tie Song23Jianfeng He24Wenjun Ma25Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China; Corresponding author at: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China; Corresponding author at: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Objectives: We aimed to estimate the time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China, Wuhan City, and Guangdong province, and compare to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Methods: Data on COVID-19 cases in China up to 20 March 2020 was collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on SARS cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing, and Hong Kong during 2002–3 was also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R0), and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 and SARS. Results: As of 20 March 2020, 80,739 locally acquired COVID-19 cases were identified in mainland China, with most cases reported between 20 January and 29 February 2020. The R0 value of COVID-19 in China and Wuhan was 5.0 and 4.8, respectively, which was greater than the R0 value of SARS in Guangdong (R0 = 2.3), Hong Kong (R0 = 2.3), and Beijing (R0 = 2.6). At the start of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Rt value in China peaked at 8.4 and then declined quickly to below 1.0 in one month. With SARS, the Rt curve saw fluctuations with more than one peak, the highest peak was lower than that for COVID-19. Conclusions: COVID-19 has much higher transmissibility than SARS, however, a series of prevention and control interventions to suppress the outbreak were effective. Sustained efforts are needed to prevent the rebound of the epidemic in the context of the global pandemic.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122032316XCOVID-19SARSChinaTime-varying reproduction number

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