Mathematical modeling and forecasting of seasonal characteristics of tourist flow

• Main Authors: Rakhmanov Sherkul, Habibullaev Ibrohim, Jumaev Akbar, Turgunov Tolib
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: EDP Sciences 2021-01-01
• Series: E3S Web of Conferences
• Online Access: https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/40/e3sconf_conmechydro2021_01042.pdf

The article describes the flow of tourists to the Republic of Uzbekistan and the methods of analysis and forecasting based on econometric modeling of the development of the process based on its seasonal characteristics. Econometric modeling methods developed by foreign and local scientists were analyzed and divided into groups to analyze the process of changing the flow of tourists and predict the future number. Among them, the additive model in the group of time series reflecting the seasonality of tourist flow was found to meet the conditions. Based on the data obtained in the quarters for 2014-2018, the values of the trend (T), seasonal (S), and random (E) components of the time series were calculated step by step, and an additive model of the process was developed. Based on the developed model, the forecast values of tourist flow for the next quarter were determined, and the deviation from the actual value of the theoretical result was 20%, and the occurrence of this deviation was clarified. Forecasts of changes in the statistics of the tourism sector have been developed. The article describes the methods of analysis and forecasting of tourist flows and seasonality of the Republic of Uzbekistan based on econometric modeling.