Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onset

Understanding and mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission hinges on antibody and viral RNA data that inform exposure and shedding, but extensive variation in assays, study group demographics and laboratory protocols across published studies confounds inference of true biological patterns. Our meta-analys...

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Main Authors:	Benny Borremans, Amandine Gamble, KC Prager, Sarah K Helman, Abby M McClain, Caitlin Cox, Van Savage, James O Lloyd-Smith
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	eLife Sciences Publications Ltd 2020-09-01
Series:	eLife
Subjects:	SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 antibody kinetics RNA meta-analysis detection probability
Online Access:	https://elifesciences.org/articles/60122

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spelling	doaj-a6657acf4ab24508ad0aaa60188866a92021-05-05T21:29:02ZengeLife Sciences Publications LtdeLife2050-084X2020-09-01910.7554/eLife.60122Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onsetBenny Borremans0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7779-4107Amandine Gamble1KC Prager2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0669-0754Sarah K Helman3Abby M McClain4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5000-4198Caitlin Cox5Van Savage6James O Lloyd-Smith7https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7941-502XEcology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States; I-BioStat, Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium; Evolutionary Ecology Group, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, BelgiumEcology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United StatesEcology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United StatesEcology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United StatesNational Marine Mammal Foundation, San Diego, United StatesEcology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United StatesEcology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States; Biomathematics Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United StatesEcology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United StatesUnderstanding and mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission hinges on antibody and viral RNA data that inform exposure and shedding, but extensive variation in assays, study group demographics and laboratory protocols across published studies confounds inference of true biological patterns. Our meta-analysis leverages 3214 datapoints from 516 individuals in 21 studies to reveal that seroconversion of both IgG and IgM occurs around 12 days post-symptom onset (range 1–40), with extensive individual variation that is not significantly associated with disease severity. IgG and IgM detection probabilities increase from roughly 10% at symptom onset to 98–100% by day 22, after which IgM wanes while IgG remains reliably detectable. RNA detection probability decreases from roughly 90% to zero by day 30, and is highest in feces and lower respiratory tract samples. Our findings provide a coherent evidence base for interpreting clinical diagnostics, and for the mathematical models and serological surveys that underpin public health policies.https://elifesciences.org/articles/60122SARS-CoV-2COVID-19antibody kineticsRNAmeta-analysisdetection probability
collection	DOAJ
language	English
format	Article
sources	DOAJ
author	Benny Borremans Amandine Gamble KC Prager Sarah K Helman Abby M McClain Caitlin Cox Van Savage James O Lloyd-Smith
spellingShingle	Benny Borremans Amandine Gamble KC Prager Sarah K Helman Abby M McClain Caitlin Cox Van Savage James O Lloyd-Smith Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onset eLife SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 antibody kinetics RNA meta-analysis detection probability
author_facet	Benny Borremans Amandine Gamble KC Prager Sarah K Helman Abby M McClain Caitlin Cox Van Savage James O Lloyd-Smith
author_sort	Benny Borremans
title	Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onset
title_short	Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onset
title_full	Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onset
title_fullStr	Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onset
title_full_unstemmed	Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onset
title_sort	quantifying antibody kinetics and rna detection during early-phase sars-cov-2 infection by time since symptom onset
publisher	eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
series	eLife
issn	2050-084X
publishDate	2020-09-01
description	Understanding and mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission hinges on antibody and viral RNA data that inform exposure and shedding, but extensive variation in assays, study group demographics and laboratory protocols across published studies confounds inference of true biological patterns. Our meta-analysis leverages 3214 datapoints from 516 individuals in 21 studies to reveal that seroconversion of both IgG and IgM occurs around 12 days post-symptom onset (range 1–40), with extensive individual variation that is not significantly associated with disease severity. IgG and IgM detection probabilities increase from roughly 10% at symptom onset to 98–100% by day 22, after which IgM wanes while IgG remains reliably detectable. RNA detection probability decreases from roughly 90% to zero by day 30, and is highest in feces and lower respiratory tract samples. Our findings provide a coherent evidence base for interpreting clinical diagnostics, and for the mathematical models and serological surveys that underpin public health policies.
topic	SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 antibody kinetics RNA meta-analysis detection probability
url	https://elifesciences.org/articles/60122
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Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onset

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