| Summary: | Mangrove forests have declined worldwide and understanding the key drivers of regeneration at different perturbation levels can help manage and preserve these critical ecosystems. For example, the Ramsar site # 1602, located at the Tampamachoco lagoon, Veracruz, México, consists of a dense forest of medium-sized trees composed of three mangrove species. Due to several human activities, including the construction of a power plant around the 1990s, an area of approximately 2.3 km<sup>2</sup> has suffered differential levels of perturbation: complete mortality, partial tree loss (divided into two sections: main and isolated patch), and apparently undisturbed sites. The number and size of trees, from seedlings to adults, were measured using transects and quadrats. With a matrix of the abundance of trees by size categories and species, an ordination (nMDS) showed three distinct groups corresponding to the degree of perturbation. Projection matrices based on the size structure of <i>Avicennia germinans</i> showed transition probabilities that varied according to perturbation levels. Lambda showed growing populations except on the zone that showed partial tree loss; a relatively high abundance of seedlings is not enough to ensure stable mangrove dynamics or start regeneration; and the survival of young trees and adult trees showed high sensitivity.
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