A statistical study of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt

• Main Author: Radwan Taha
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: De Gruyter 2021-07-01
• Series: Demonstratio Mathematica
• Subjects: statistical model; pandemic; covid-19; coronavirus; time series analysis; 37m10; 62m10; 62p10; 65c20
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1515/dema-2021-0028

The spread of the COVID-19 started in Wuhan on December 31, 2019, and a powerful outbreak of the disease occurred there. According to the latest data, more than 165 million cases of COVID-19 infection have been detected in the world (last update May 19, 2021). In this paper, we propose a statistical study of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt. This study will help us to understand and study the evolution of this pandemic. Moreover, documenting of accurate data and taken policies in Egypt can help other countries to deal with this epidemic, and it will also be useful in the event that other similar viruses emerge in the future. We will apply a widely used model in order to predict the number of COVID-19 cases in the coming period, which is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. This model depicts the present behaviour of variables through linear relationship with their past values. The expected results will enable us to provide appropriate advice to decision-makers in Egypt on how to deal with this epidemic.