Specific Features of Econometric Consumption Models in Ukraine under Conditions of Instability and Structural Changes

• Main Author: Oliskevych Marianna O.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Research Centre of Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine 2014-03-01
• Series: Bìznes Inform
• Subjects: private consumption; permanent income hypothesis; adaptive expectations model; partial adjustment model; recursive ratios; liquidity restrictions
• Online Access: http://www.business-inform.net/pdf/2014/3_0/113_121.pdf

The article analyses dynamic properties of developed econometric consumption models, which are an important component of the study of specific features of the national economy development under conditions of instability and structural changes. The article conducts an empirical analysis of time dynamics of effects of influence upon consumption expenditures of households, change of permanent and temporary income, inflation rate, sensitivity to deviations from long-term tendencies and other factors. Econometric modelling, theoretical foundation of which is the permanent income hypothesis, is based on the use of the adaptive expectations model, partial adjustment model, seasonal differences and auto-regression model with distributed lags. Co-ordination of the results of all models shows that negative processes in the country economy, which developed in the result of the crisis that started in 2008, significantly worsened economic state of domestic consumers and resulted in a situation when practically all households in Ukraine today, having exhausted their resources and experiencing liquidity constraints, have no possibility to smooth their consumption in time and form their consumption expenditures on the basis of the current income.