Probing the linearity and nonlinearity in the transitions of the atmospheric circulation

• Main Author: A. A. Tsonis
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2001-01-01
• Series: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
• Online Access: http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/8/341/2001/npg-8-341-2001.pdf

In this paper, we apply the principles of information theory that relate to the definition of nonlinear predictability, which is a measure that describes both the linear and nonlinear components of a system. By comparing this measure to a measure of linear predictability, one can assess whether a given system has a strong nonlinear or a strong linear component. This provides insights as to whether the system should be modelled by a nonlinear model or by a linear model. We apply these ideas to a known dynamical system and to a time series that describe the transitions in atmospheric circulation.