Forecasting of Daily PM10 Concentrations in Brno and Graz by Different Regression Approaches

• Main Authors: Ernst Stadlober, Zuzana Hübnerová, Jaroslav Michálek, Miroslav Kolář
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Austrian Statistical Society 2016-02-01
• Series: Austrian Journal of Statistics
• Online Access: http://www.ajs.or.at/index.php/ajs/article/view/169

Brno and Graz, the second largest cities of their countries, observe in each winter season PM10 concentrations of daily means which regularly exceed the limit value of 50 ?g/m3. This is mainly caused by unfavorable dissemination conditions of the ambient air. Hence, partial regulation measures have to be taken in Brno and Graz where specific decisions for certain regulations may be based on the average PM10 concentration of the next day provided that reliable forecasts of these values are available. For several sites in the two cities we establish forecasts of daily PM10 concentrations based on multiple linear regression and generalized linear models utilizing both measured covariates of the present day and meteorological forecasts of the next day. The comparisons, based on different quality measures demonstrate the usefulness of both model approaches as they yield results of similar quality. Our prediction models may support future decisions concerning possible traffic restrictions or other regulations.