| Summary: | Thermodynamic and dynamic quantities, such as the K-index and GUSTEX (a wind gust estimate), are commonly used in the nowcasting of intense convective weather. In the past, they were derived from conventional upper-air ascent measurements, which were normally only available twice a day. In the tropics, the thermodynamic property of the troposphere could change rapidly in rain episodes and the conventional upper-air ascent data alone are not sufficient for nowcasting purposes. This paper discusses the use of a multi-wavelength, ground-based microwave radiometer to provide frequently updated (once every 5 minutes) thermodynamic profiles of the troposphere up to 10 km for the nowcasting of severe convective weather during a field experiment in Hong Kong in 2004. The accuracy of the radiometer's measurements is first established by comparing with the temperature and humidity profiles of upper-air ascents and the integrated water vapour of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. The humidity profile and K-index from the radiometer in a number of rainstorm cases are then studied. They are found to give useful indications of the accumulation of water vapour and the increasing degree of instability of the troposphere before the occurrence of the heavy rain. The continuous availability of the thermodynamic profiles from the radiometer also makes it possible to study the correlation between K-index and the degree of instability of the troposphere. In this study, the tropospheric instability is expressed in terms of the total number and the rate of lightning strikes within 20 km or so from the radiometer. It is found to have good correlation with the time-averaged K-index from the radiometer during the heavy rain episodes in the field experiment period. Furthermore, the feasibility of combining the thermodynamic profiles from the radiometer and wind profiles given by radar wind profilers in the continuous estimation of wind gusts is studied. The estimated and the actual gusts are reasonably well correlated. The wind gusts so estimated are found to provide better indications of the strength of squalls, with a lead time of about one hour, compared with those based on radiosonde measurements. Overall speaking, the microwave radiometer is able to provide very useful data in the nowcasting of intense convective weather.
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