Development and validation of composite risk score to assess risks of major noncommunicable diseases in Northern Indian populations: A research protocol

• Main Authors: Ria Nangia, J S Thakur, Anil Kumar Bhalla, Ajay Duseja
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications 2020-01-01
• Series: International Journal of Noncommunicable Diseases
• Subjects: chronic diseases; integrated risk score; noncommunicable diseases; risk factors; risk score
• Online Access: http://www.ijncd.org/article.asp?issn=2468-8827;year=2020;volume=5;issue=4;spage=207;epage=210;aulast=Nangia
• ISSN: 2468-8827; 2468-8835

Background: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) which mainly consist of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory diseases account for 38 million deaths out of the 56 million deaths globally and 54% of healthy life years lost in 2012. Risk scores predict the risk of the disease efficiently, and an important strategy to prevent or delay the occurrence of chronic diseases is the early identification of those with undiagnosed NCDs. Methods: Two different population-based studies will be used for the development of the score and its validation. Secondary data from WHO STEPS Survey Haryana of 5250 individuals will be used to develop the predictive score and will be validated using STEPS Punjab data. Risk predictors will be used as the independent factors in the multivariate logistic regression and the dependent variable will be the disease. The regression coefficient will be used to assign each variable category a score. Risk score will be derived from receiver operating characteristic curve and the optimal cut-off will be determined using Youden's Index. Measures of overall predictive accuracy, discrimination and calibration will be used to assess predictive performance. Discussion: The present study is an attempt to develop a composite risk score for major NCDs so that effective preventive and control measures can be initiated once the risk is known. The developed tool will help in risk assessment and the successful implementation of NCD programs.