Development of method of risk assessment of ship’s demmurage as a result of restricted relaibility of port’s mechanisms

• Main Authors: Михаил Яковлевич Постан, Татьяна Евгеньевна Корниец, Лариса Владимировна Москалюк
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: PC Technology Center 2014-10-01
• Series: Tehnologìčnij Audit ta Rezervi Virobnictva
• Subjects: port’s terminal; failures of port’s mechanisms; random demurrage of ship; insurance
• Online Access: http://journals.uran.ua/tarp/article/view/26740
• ISSN: 2226-3780; 2312-8372

The methodical approach is proposed for assessment of additional ship’s demurrage under loading (unloading) arising because of  port’s mechanisms failures and corresponding reduction of loading (unloading ) processing rate. This approach is based on theory of queueing systems evolving in random environment. With the help of the linear Markov processes the algorithm is developed for actual standing time of ship distribution function finding taking into account possible reduction of processing rate. This distribution function allows us to calculate a forecast of ship’s time of demurrage. The results obtained give possibility to formulate the criterion of expediency of demurrage risk’s insurance by port terminal’s operator (the risk of contract laytime exceeding). Practical use of our method allows а port terminal’s operator to reduce his financial loss under such risk appearance.