Modeling the perception of the risk of accidents in drivers: a declared preferences approach

• Main Authors: Víctor Alejandro Pachón Pineda, Jesus Alberto Rivera Zabaleta, Thomas Edison Guerrero Barbosa
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Universidad Francisco de Paula Santander Ocaña 2020-01-01
• Series: Revista Ingenio
• Subjects: drivers; multinomial logit; perception of accident risk; declared preferences
• Online Access: https://revistas.ufps.edu.co/index.php/ingenio/article/view/2390/2890

Governmental and non-governmental entities need tools to reduce road accidents, which year after year continue to claim millions of lives around the planet; Knowing that the human factor is one of the major causes of the fatal effects of this phenomenon, the present research established which factors associated with human behavior are influential in determining the perception of the risk of accidents in drivers. . The modeling approach consisted of estimating a multinomial logit model (MNL) from information collected using declared preference instruments (PD). Seeking to know the behavior of individuals in hypothetical driving scenarios under 4 main attributes: driving speed, driving on the wrong track, overtaking a vehicle in a curve and driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs, which according to the state of the art were more representative . The robustness of the model was complemented with the estimation of parameters associated with the socioeconomic characteristics of the individual and the interaction with the main variables, highlighting the effect of the variables gender, age, occupation, length of license and auditory restrictions, which they turned out to be influential in the modeling of the phenomenon studied.