How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of several pioneering studies in the field of Czech political and security scenario-building
Predictive analysis is rare in the field of Czech security studies. For this reason, scenarios of world politics by Institute of International Relations (IIR) (2012–2017) as well as predictions by the think-tank European values (2016) constitute pioneering works worthy of attention. The article anal...
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University of Defence
2018-06-01
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| Series: | Obrana a Strategie |
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| Online Access: | https://www.obranaastrategie.cz/cs/archiv/rocnik-2018/1-2018/clanky/jak-ne-predvidat-budoucnost.html |
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doaj-9c8a1b95ee2a4fc69d07e0cd55d001832021-03-02T00:25:13ZcesUniversity of DefenceObrana a Strategie1214-64631802-71992018-06-0118113114610.3849/1802-7199.18.2018.01.131-146How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of several pioneering studies in the field of Czech political and security scenario-buildingMiroslav Kalous0Ministry of Defence of the Czech RepublicPredictive analysis is rare in the field of Czech security studies. For this reason, scenarios of world politics by Institute of International Relations (IIR) (2012–2017) as well as predictions by the think-tank European values (2016) constitute pioneering works worthy of attention. The article analyses these scenarios, focusing on their methodological aspects. The articles concludes by noting that IIR’s scenarios are a welcome contribution to the field but the same cannot be said about scenarios of European values.https://www.obranaastrategie.cz/cs/archiv/rocnik-2018/1-2018/clanky/jak-ne-predvidat-budoucnost.htmlPredictionPrognosisScenariosSecurity StudiesInternational PoliticsMethodology |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
ces |
| format |
Article |
| sources |
DOAJ |
| author |
Miroslav Kalous |
| spellingShingle |
Miroslav Kalous How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of several pioneering studies in the field of Czech political and security scenario-building Obrana a Strategie Prediction Prognosis Scenarios Security Studies International Politics Methodology |
| author_facet |
Miroslav Kalous |
| author_sort |
Miroslav Kalous |
| title |
How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of several pioneering studies in the field of Czech political and security scenario-building |
| title_short |
How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of several pioneering studies in the field of Czech political and security scenario-building |
| title_full |
How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of several pioneering studies in the field of Czech political and security scenario-building |
| title_fullStr |
How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of several pioneering studies in the field of Czech political and security scenario-building |
| title_full_unstemmed |
How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of several pioneering studies in the field of Czech political and security scenario-building |
| title_sort |
how (not) to predict the future? analysis of several pioneering studies in the field of czech political and security scenario-building |
| publisher |
University of Defence |
| series |
Obrana a Strategie |
| issn |
1214-6463 1802-7199 |
| publishDate |
2018-06-01 |
| description |
Predictive analysis is rare in the field of Czech security studies. For this reason, scenarios of world politics by Institute of International Relations (IIR) (2012–2017) as well as predictions by the think-tank European values (2016) constitute pioneering works worthy of attention. The article analyses these scenarios, focusing on their methodological aspects. The articles concludes by noting that IIR’s scenarios are a welcome contribution to the field but the same cannot be said about scenarios of European values. |
| topic |
Prediction Prognosis Scenarios Security Studies International Politics Methodology |
| url |
https://www.obranaastrategie.cz/cs/archiv/rocnik-2018/1-2018/clanky/jak-ne-predvidat-budoucnost.html |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT miroslavkalous hownottopredictthefutureanalysisofseveralpioneeringstudiesinthefieldofczechpoliticalandsecurityscenariobuilding |
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1724245346912043008 |