| Summary: | Abstract Background There is no clearly defined temporal relationship between arterial stiffness and diabetes. We aimed to investigate the prospective association between baseline brachial–ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and the risk of new-onset diabetes during follow-up, and examined whether there were effect modifiers, in hypertensive patients. Methods We included 2429 hypertensive patients with all the pertinent data but without diabetes at the baseline, who were part of the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT), a randomized, double-blind, actively controlled trial conducted in 32 communities in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces in China. The primary outcome was new-onset diabetes, defined as physician-diagnosed diabetes or use of glucose-lowering drugs during follow-up, or fasting glucose (FG) ≥ 126.0 mg/dL at the exit visit. Results During a median follow-up duration of 4.5 years, 287 (11.8%) participants developed diabetes. There was a significant positive association between baseline baPWV and the risk of new-onset diabetes (per SD increment; OR, 1.33; 95% CI 1.13, 1.56). Consistently, when baPWV was assessed as quartiles, a significantly higher risk of new-onset diabetes was found in participants in quartiles 2–4 (≥ 15.9 m/s; OR, 1.80; 95% CI 1.22, 2.65) compared with those in quartile 1 (< 15.9 m/s). The positive association was consistent in participants with (per SD increment; OR, 1.29; 95% CI 1.06, 1.56) or without (per SD increment; OR, 1.40; 95% CI 1.15, 1.71) impaired fasting glucose (IFG, FG ≥ 100.8 and < 126.0 mg/dL, P-interaction = 0.486). Conclusions In this sample of hypertensive patients, we found a significant positive association between baseline baPWV and the risk of new-onset diabetes. Clinical trial registration Trial registration: NCT00794885 (clinicaltrials.gov). Retrospectively registered November 20, 2008
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