The spreading of Covid-19 in Mexico: A diffusional approach

• Main Authors: Carlos G. Aguilar-Madera, Gilberto Espinosa-Paredes, E.C. Herrera-Hernández, Jorge A. Briones Carrillo, J. Valente Flores-Cano, Víctor Matías-Pérez
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2021-08-01
• Series: Results in Physics
• Subjects: Coronavirus; Covid-19; Mexico; Spreading; SEIRD model; Diffusion
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379721006574

In this work, we analyze the spreading of Covid-19 in Mexico using the spatial SEIRD epidemiologic model. We use the information of the 32 regions (States) that conform the country, such as population density, verified infected cases, and deaths in each State. We extend the SEIRD compartmental epidemiologic with diffusion mechanisms in the exposed and susceptible populations. We use the Fickian law with the diffusion coefficient proportional to the population density to encompass the diffusion effects. The numerical results suggest that the epidemiologic model demands time-dependent parameters to incorporate non-monotonous behavior in the actual data in the global dynamic. The diffusional model proposed in this work has great potential in predicting the virus spreading on different scales, i.e., local, national, and between countries, since the complete reduction in people mobility is impossible.