Model the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 propagation with public health intervention

• Main Author: Dejen Ketema Mamo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2020-08-01
• Series: Results in Applied Mathematics
• Subjects: Coronavirus disease; Stay at home; Isolation; Theoretical analysis; Numerical simulation
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590037420300339

In this work, a researcher develops SHEIQRD(Susceptible–Stay-at-home–Exposed-Infected–Quarantine–Recovery–Death) coronavirus pandemic, spread model. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are computed and analyzed. The basic reproduction number R0is acquired, and its sensitivity analysis conducted. COVID-19 pandemic spread dies out when R0≤1and persists in the community whenever R0>1. Efficient stay-at-home rate, high coverage of precise identification and isolation of exposed and infected individuals, reduction of transmission, and stay-at-home return rate can mitigate COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, theoretical analysis and numerical results are shown to be consistent.