Designing a New Data Intelligence Model for Global Solar Radiation Prediction: Application of Multivariate Modeling Scheme

• Main Authors: Hai Tao, Isa Ebtehaj, Hossein Bonakdari, Salim Heddam, Cyril Voyant, Nadhir Al-Ansari, Ravinesh Deo, Zaher Mundher Yaseen
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2019-04-01
• Series: Energies
• Subjects: energy harvesting; solar radiation simulation; SaE-ELM model; multivariate modeling; African region
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/7/1365

Global solar radiation prediction is highly desirable for multiple energy applications, such as energy production and sustainability, solar energy systems management, and lighting tasks for home use and recreational purposes. This research work designs a new approach and investigates the capability of novel data intelligent models based on the self-adaptive evolutionary extreme learning machine (SaE-ELM) algorithm to predict daily solar radiation in the Burkina Faso region. Four different meteorological stations are tested in the modeling process: Boromo, Dori, Gaoua and Po, located in West Africa. Various climate variables associated with the changes in solar radiation are utilized as the exploratory predictor variables through different input combinations used in the intelligent model (maximum and minimum air temperatures and humidity, wind speed, evaporation and vapor pressure deficits). The input combinations are then constructed based on the magnitude of the Pearson correlation coefficient computed between the predictors and the predictand, as a baseline method to determine the similarity between the predictors and the target variable. The results of the four tested meteorological stations show consistent findings, where the incorporation of all climate variables seemed to generate data intelligent models that performs with best prediction accuracy. A closer examination showed that the tested sites, Boromo, Dori, Gaoua and Po, attained the best performance result in the testing phase, with a root mean square error and a mean absolute error (RMSE-MAE [MJ/m²]) equating to about (0.72-0.54), (2.57-1.99), (0.88-0.65) and (1.17-0.86), respectively. In general, the proposed data intelligent models provide an excellent modeling strategy for solar radiation prediction, particularly over the Burkina Faso region in Western Africa. This study offers implications for solar energy exploration and energy management in data sparse regions.