Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050

Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An adva...

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Main Authors: P. Droogers, W. W. Immerzeel, W. Terink, J. Hoogeveen, M. F. P. Bierkens, L. P. H. van Beek, B. Debele
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2012-09-01
Series:Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Online Access:http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/3101/2012/hess-16-3101-2012.pdf
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spelling doaj-935e0a27d5994ca99359e2752419eb8d2020-11-24T21:26:11ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382012-09-011693101311410.5194/hess-16-3101-2012Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050P. DroogersW. W. ImmerzeelW. TerinkJ. HoogeveenM. F. P. BierkensL. P. H. van BeekB. DebeleChanges in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An advanced, physically based, distributed, hydrological model is applied to determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectoral water demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 393 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> in 2050, while total water shortage will grow to 199 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> in 2050 for the average climate change projection, an increase of 157 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>. This increase in shortage is the combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50% with a decrease in water supply by 12%. Uncertainty, based on the output of the nine GCMs applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> to 283 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>~in 2050. The analysis shows that 22% of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78% to changes in socio-economic factors.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/3101/2012/hess-16-3101-2012.pdf
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author P. Droogers
W. W. Immerzeel
W. Terink
J. Hoogeveen
M. F. P. Bierkens
L. P. H. van Beek
B. Debele
spellingShingle P. Droogers
W. W. Immerzeel
W. Terink
J. Hoogeveen
M. F. P. Bierkens
L. P. H. van Beek
B. Debele
Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
author_facet P. Droogers
W. W. Immerzeel
W. Terink
J. Hoogeveen
M. F. P. Bierkens
L. P. H. van Beek
B. Debele
author_sort P. Droogers
title Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
title_short Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
title_full Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
title_fullStr Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
title_full_unstemmed Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
title_sort water resources trends in middle east and north africa towards 2050
publisher Copernicus Publications
series Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
issn 1027-5606
1607-7938
publishDate 2012-09-01
description Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An advanced, physically based, distributed, hydrological model is applied to determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectoral water demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 393 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> in 2050, while total water shortage will grow to 199 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> in 2050 for the average climate change projection, an increase of 157 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>. This increase in shortage is the combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50% with a decrease in water supply by 12%. Uncertainty, based on the output of the nine GCMs applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> to 283 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>~in 2050. The analysis shows that 22% of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78% to changes in socio-economic factors.
url http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/3101/2012/hess-16-3101-2012.pdf
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