Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes
A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2011-06-01
|
| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1657/2011/nhess-11-1657-2011.pdf |
| Summary: | A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily rainfall data into a calibration period for parameter estimation and a validation period for checking on occurrence process changes. The model has been applied to a set of rain gauges located in different geographical areas of Southern Italy. The results show a good fit for time-varying intensity of rainfall occurrence process by 2-harmonic Fourier law and no statistically significant evidence of changes in the validation period for different threshold values. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |