| Summary: | Abstract Background Whether progressive mild to moderate aortic stenosis in hemodialysis patients influences their prognosis has not been elucidated. This prospective cohort study explored whether progressive aortic stenosis predicted the rate of cardiac events and mortality in those patients. Methods A total of 283 consecutive hemodialysis patients (no aortic stenosis, 248; progressive aortic stenosis, 35) underwent echocardiography for assessment of aortic stenosis, with a median follow-up period of 4.1 years. Study endpoints were cardiac events, all-cause mortality, and cardiac death. Kaplan–Meier analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis were performed to estimate cardiac events, all-cause mortality, and cardiac death. Results Cumulative cardiac event rate, all-cause mortality rate, and the rate of cardiac death at 3-year follow-up were 44.9%, 40.5%, and 26.4% in patients with progressive aortic stenosis and 22.1%, 19.0%, and 7.5% in those without aortic stenosis, respectively. Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated the cumulative rates of cardiac events and all-cause mortality. And cardiac death was significantly higher in patients with progressive aortic stenosis than in those without aortic stenosis. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed that progressive aortic stenosis was predictive of cardiac events (adjusted hazard ratio 2.47; 95% confidence interval 1.38–4.39) and cardiac death (adjusted hazard ratio 4.21; 95% confidence interval 2.10–8.46). Age, physical activity, C-reactive protein, and serum albumin levels—but not progressive aortic stenosis—predicted all-cause mortality. Conclusions The rates of cardiac events and cardiac death were higher in hemodialysis patients with progressive aortic stenosis than in those without aortic stenosis. Furthermore, progressive aortic stenosis predicted cardiac events and cardiac death. Compared with those without aortic stenosis, patients with progressive aortic stenosis had higher all-cause mortality, which was related to their comorbidities. Trial registration This study was retrospectively registered with University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry (registration number, UMIN 000024023) at September 12th, 2016.
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