Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states.
An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We examine political disintegration across eras, cultures and geographical scale to form a simple hypothesis that can b...
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doaj-91f31ebbdc45426983e9f130055dcb7a2020-11-25T02:31:46ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032014-01-0195e9652310.1371/journal.pone.0096523Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states.Daniel John LawsonNeeraj OakAn explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We examine political disintegration across eras, cultures and geographical scale to form a simple hypothesis that can be expressed verbally yet formulated mathematically. Factions within a state make choices described by game-theory about whether to accept the political status quo, or to attempt to better their circumstances through costly rebellion. In lieu of precise data we verify our model using sensitivity analysis. We find that a small amount of dissatisfaction is typically harmless to the state, but can trigger sudden collapse when there is a sufficient buildup of political inequality. Contrary to intuition, a state is predicted to be least stable when its leadership is at the height of its political power and thus most able to exert its influence through external warfare, lavish expense or autocratic decree.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4014536?pdf=render |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Daniel John Lawson Neeraj Oak |
spellingShingle |
Daniel John Lawson Neeraj Oak Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states. PLoS ONE |
author_facet |
Daniel John Lawson Neeraj Oak |
author_sort |
Daniel John Lawson |
title |
Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states. |
title_short |
Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states. |
title_full |
Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states. |
title_fullStr |
Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states. |
title_sort |
apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
series |
PLoS ONE |
issn |
1932-6203 |
publishDate |
2014-01-01 |
description |
An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We examine political disintegration across eras, cultures and geographical scale to form a simple hypothesis that can be expressed verbally yet formulated mathematically. Factions within a state make choices described by game-theory about whether to accept the political status quo, or to attempt to better their circumstances through costly rebellion. In lieu of precise data we verify our model using sensitivity analysis. We find that a small amount of dissatisfaction is typically harmless to the state, but can trigger sudden collapse when there is a sufficient buildup of political inequality. Contrary to intuition, a state is predicted to be least stable when its leadership is at the height of its political power and thus most able to exert its influence through external warfare, lavish expense or autocratic decree. |
url |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4014536?pdf=render |
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