Rapid Evaluation of the Effects of Policies Corresponding to Air Quality, Carbon Emissions and Energy Consumption: An Example from Shenzhen, China

• Main Authors: Shi-Qi Yang, Jia Xing, Wen-Ying Chen, Fen Li, Yun Zhu
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2021-09-01
• Series: Atmosphere
• Subjects: air quality; reducing air pollutant emissions; ABaCAS; RSM-VAT; evaluation of policy effects; reducing CO₂ emissions
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/9/1221

Efficient environmental policies are necessary in the improvement of air quality and reduction in carbon emissions, and the interactions between policy, activity, emissions, and environment comprise a cycle allowing the evaluation of the effects of implemented policies. Based on the establishment of the connection between environmental parameters and policy context using a quantifiable methodology, in this study, we formulated a rapid and simplified pattern for the evaluation of the effects of policies concerning the atmospheric environment, and applied it to the evaluation and improvement of policies for Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction and air quality enhancement in the sample city of Shenzhen. The Response Surface Model-Visualization and Analysis Tool (RSM-VAT) in the Air Benefit and Cost and Attainment Assessment System (ABaCAS) was applied as the core tool. The required reductions in Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions for 2014–2019 are expected to be achieved; however, the expected reductions in Nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions (mainly from road mobile sources) and Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions (mainly from secondary industry and road mobile sources) are less certain. According to the simulated concentration of PM_2.5 in 2019, it is necessary to reduce the concentrations of air pollutants, both within and outside Shenzhen. The background weather conditions may be the main reason for the increased concentrations of Ozone (O₃) in October compared to those in July. Reductions in NO_x and VOCs tend to be the main factors driving changes in O₃ concentrations. Policies have been formulated and implemented in a wide array of areas. According to the quantitative comparative analysis of the policies, and the relevant activities, the greatest challenge in reducing NO_x and VOCs emissions is presented by the oil-powered vehicles in the road mobile sector and organic solvent production in the secondary industry sector. Therefore, in an effort to achieve better air quality and ensure that CO₂ emissions reach a peak in Shenzhen by 2025, we propose key improvements in policies based on interdisciplinary cooperation, involving not only atmospheric and environmental science, but also governance and urban planning.