A Provincial Perspective of Nonlinear Okun’s Law for Emerging Markets: The Case of South Africa
A provincial analysis of Okun’s law in South Africa is provided in this article from 1996 to 2016. Empirically, we rely on the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (N-ARDL) model whilst the Corbae-Ouliaris filter is used to extract the ‘gap’ variables required for our regression estimates. Okun...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Vasile Goldis University Press
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldis Arad, Seria Stiinte Economice |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2020-0017 |
| Summary: | A provincial analysis of Okun’s law in South Africa is provided in this article from 1996 to 2016. Empirically, we rely on the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (N-ARDL) model whilst the Corbae-Ouliaris filter is used to extract the ‘gap’ variables required for our regression estimates. Okun’s law is found to be significant hold in the long-run exclusively for the Western Cape and Kwa-Zulu Natal provinces whereas the remaining provinces partially display significant short-run effects. Our sensitivity analysis in which panel N-ARDL estimations for all provinces finds insignificant long-run Okun effects for the country as a whole, whilst validating the relationship only in the short-run. Our study hence advises that the epicenter of policy efforts in addressing the country’s high unemployment and low economic growth dilemma should be concentrated at a provincial level. |
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| ISSN: | 1584-2339 2285-3065 |