Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years

Abstract Background Nearly half of the cases of esophageal cancer in the world were in China, but the corresponding burden in China has not been estimated for the past decades or for the near future. Methods Data on the incidence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) rates owing to...

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Main Authors: Songbo Li, Hui Chen, Jinyu Man, Tongchao Zhang, Xiaolin Yin, Qiufeng He, Xiaorong Yang, Ming Lu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2021-03-01
Series:Cancer Medicine
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.3775
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spelling doaj-8fe4c4b1e2874ea39860f1dbccb41c562021-08-17T10:20:36ZengWileyCancer Medicine2045-76342021-03-011051889189910.1002/cam4.3775Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 yearsSongbo Li0Hui Chen1Jinyu Man2Tongchao Zhang3Xiaolin Yin4Qiufeng He5Xiaorong Yang6Ming Lu7Clinical Epidemiology Unit Qilu Hospital of Shandong University Jinan ChinaClinical Epidemiology Unit Qilu Hospital of Shandong University Jinan ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics School of Public Health Cheeloo College of MedicineShandong University Jinan ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics School of Public Health Cheeloo College of MedicineShandong University Jinan ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics School of Public Health Cheeloo College of MedicineShandong University Jinan ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics School of Public Health Cheeloo College of MedicineShandong University Jinan ChinaClinical Epidemiology Unit Qilu Hospital of Shandong University Jinan ChinaClinical Epidemiology Unit Qilu Hospital of Shandong University Jinan ChinaAbstract Background Nearly half of the cases of esophageal cancer in the world were in China, but the corresponding burden in China has not been estimated for the past decades or for the near future. Methods Data on the incidence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) rates owing to esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To reflect the trend in the disease burden, we calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age‐standardized rates of these three outcomes in China from 1990 to 2017. Results The age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for esophageal cancer decreased from 19.38/100,000 in 1990 to 12.23/100,000 in 2017, with an EAPC of −2.53 (95%CI: −2.90, −2.16), but the number of cases of esophageal cancer increased from 164,473 to 234,624. The age‐standardized rates of esophageal cancer in females were always lower than they were in males during the study period, and there was a downward trend that was more pronounced among females than males. The most common risk factors for males were smoking and alcohol consumption, while the most common risk factors for females were a diet low in fruits and a high body mass index (BMI). New cases of, and deaths from esophageal cancer are predicted to increase by about 1.5 times in the coming 25 years. Conclusion Although the age‐standardized burden of esophageal cancer has been declining, the number of new cases of, and deaths from esophageal cancer have increased in China over the past 30 years, and they will continue to increase in the near future. Hence, national policies should be adopted to promote the prevention and management of known risk factors for it, especially smoking and excessive caloric intake.https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.3775disease burdenesophageal cancerpredictionrisk factorstrend
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Songbo Li
Hui Chen
Jinyu Man
Tongchao Zhang
Xiaolin Yin
Qiufeng He
Xiaorong Yang
Ming Lu
spellingShingle Songbo Li
Hui Chen
Jinyu Man
Tongchao Zhang
Xiaolin Yin
Qiufeng He
Xiaorong Yang
Ming Lu
Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years
Cancer Medicine
disease burden
esophageal cancer
prediction
risk factors
trend
author_facet Songbo Li
Hui Chen
Jinyu Man
Tongchao Zhang
Xiaolin Yin
Qiufeng He
Xiaorong Yang
Ming Lu
author_sort Songbo Li
title Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years
title_short Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years
title_full Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years
title_fullStr Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years
title_full_unstemmed Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years
title_sort changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in china from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years
publisher Wiley
series Cancer Medicine
issn 2045-7634
publishDate 2021-03-01
description Abstract Background Nearly half of the cases of esophageal cancer in the world were in China, but the corresponding burden in China has not been estimated for the past decades or for the near future. Methods Data on the incidence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) rates owing to esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To reflect the trend in the disease burden, we calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age‐standardized rates of these three outcomes in China from 1990 to 2017. Results The age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for esophageal cancer decreased from 19.38/100,000 in 1990 to 12.23/100,000 in 2017, with an EAPC of −2.53 (95%CI: −2.90, −2.16), but the number of cases of esophageal cancer increased from 164,473 to 234,624. The age‐standardized rates of esophageal cancer in females were always lower than they were in males during the study period, and there was a downward trend that was more pronounced among females than males. The most common risk factors for males were smoking and alcohol consumption, while the most common risk factors for females were a diet low in fruits and a high body mass index (BMI). New cases of, and deaths from esophageal cancer are predicted to increase by about 1.5 times in the coming 25 years. Conclusion Although the age‐standardized burden of esophageal cancer has been declining, the number of new cases of, and deaths from esophageal cancer have increased in China over the past 30 years, and they will continue to increase in the near future. Hence, national policies should be adopted to promote the prevention and management of known risk factors for it, especially smoking and excessive caloric intake.
topic disease burden
esophageal cancer
prediction
risk factors
trend
url https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.3775
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