Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa

We review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate between the concepts of a model world and its mathematical or computational implementation. The model world is the conceptu...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Nathan Geffen, Alex Welte
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: AOSIS 2018-02-01
Series:Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine
Subjects:
Online Access:https://sajhivmed.org.za/index.php/hivmed/article/view/756
id doaj-8f4ce66d2886417f97a45f0ded90ee81
record_format Article
spelling doaj-8f4ce66d2886417f97a45f0ded90ee812020-11-24T22:16:28ZengAOSISSouthern African Journal of HIV Medicine1608-96932078-67512018-02-01191e1e1510.4102/sajhivmed.v19i1.756577Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South AfricaNathan Geffen0Alex Welte1Department of Computer Science, Centre for Social Science Research, University of Cape TownSouth African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), University of StellenboschWe review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate between the concepts of a model world and its mathematical or computational implementation. The model world is the conceptual realm in which we explicitly declare the rules – usually some simplification of ‘real world’ processes as we understand them. Computing details of informative scenarios in these model worlds is a task requiring specialist knowledge, but all other aspects of the modelling process, from describing the model world to identifying the scenarios and interpreting model outputs, should be understandable to anyone with an interest in the epidemic.https://sajhivmed.org.za/index.php/hivmed/article/view/756epidemiologymodelsantiretrovirals
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Nathan Geffen
Alex Welte
spellingShingle Nathan Geffen
Alex Welte
Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa
Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine
epidemiology
models
antiretrovirals
author_facet Nathan Geffen
Alex Welte
author_sort Nathan Geffen
title Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa
title_short Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa
title_full Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa
title_fullStr Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa
title_sort modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) epidemic: a review of the substance and role of models in south africa
publisher AOSIS
series Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine
issn 1608-9693
2078-6751
publishDate 2018-02-01
description We review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate between the concepts of a model world and its mathematical or computational implementation. The model world is the conceptual realm in which we explicitly declare the rules – usually some simplification of ‘real world’ processes as we understand them. Computing details of informative scenarios in these model worlds is a task requiring specialist knowledge, but all other aspects of the modelling process, from describing the model world to identifying the scenarios and interpreting model outputs, should be understandable to anyone with an interest in the epidemic.
topic epidemiology
models
antiretrovirals
url https://sajhivmed.org.za/index.php/hivmed/article/view/756
work_keys_str_mv AT nathangeffen modellingthehumanimmunodeficiencyvirushivepidemicareviewofthesubstanceandroleofmodelsinsouthafrica
AT alexwelte modellingthehumanimmunodeficiencyvirushivepidemicareviewofthesubstanceandroleofmodelsinsouthafrica
_version_ 1725789710569177088