Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa

We review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate between the concepts of a model world and its mathematical or computational implementation. The model world is the conceptu...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Nathan Geffen, Alex Welte
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: AOSIS 2018-02-01
Series:Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine
Subjects:
Online Access:https://sajhivmed.org.za/index.php/hivmed/article/view/756
Description
Summary:We review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate between the concepts of a model world and its mathematical or computational implementation. The model world is the conceptual realm in which we explicitly declare the rules – usually some simplification of ‘real world’ processes as we understand them. Computing details of informative scenarios in these model worlds is a task requiring specialist knowledge, but all other aspects of the modelling process, from describing the model world to identifying the scenarios and interpreting model outputs, should be understandable to anyone with an interest in the epidemic.
ISSN:1608-9693
2078-6751