On Extending Composite Leading Indicators by International Economic Series
Composite leading indicators (CLIs) are recognized as eligible tools for business cycle analysis. When the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) constructs CLI, its composition depends on national data only. However, European economies are often small and open and therefore t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Czech Statistical Office
2018-06-01
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| Series: | Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal |
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| Online Access: | https://www.czso.cz/documents/10180/61266319/32019718q2113.pdf/221c488f-adcf-4398-a7e9-28120cf6be88?version=1.0 |
| Summary: | Composite leading indicators (CLIs) are recognized as eligible tools for business cycle analysis. When the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) constructs CLI, its composition depends on national data only. However, European economies are often small and open and therefore their business cycles relate to situations in other countries. The approach described in this paper reflects these characteristics. The international CLIs for Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Slovakia are constructed and the leading influences on these countries are discussed.
The methodology of the CLI construction is described in detail by several organizations. It, therefore, comes as a surprise, that there are no publicly available software programs, R packages or Python libraries, that would support the whole computational process or its automation. A new Python-based framework is proposed to fill this gap and it is demonstrated on the international CLI construction. It is introduced for the very first time in this paper and it enables users to quickly analyze and visualize larger volumes of data than any other available solution. |
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| ISSN: | 0322-788X 1804-8765 |