Impact of Seasonal Variation in Climate on Water Quality of Old Woman Creek Watershed Ohio Using SWAT

The effect of the projected 21st century climate change on water quality in Old Woman Creek (OWC) watershed was evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the precipitation and temperature projections from three best Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)l ensemble downloaded from...

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Main Authors: Israel A. Olaoye, Remegio B. Confesor, Joseph D. Ortiz
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2021-03-01
Series:Climate
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/3/50
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spelling doaj-8e618a6bfeb04d0aaf18eeb371ed5d202021-03-20T00:07:31ZengMDPI AGClimate2225-11542021-03-019505010.3390/cli9030050Impact of Seasonal Variation in Climate on Water Quality of Old Woman Creek Watershed Ohio Using SWATIsrael A. Olaoye0Remegio B. Confesor1Joseph D. Ortiz2Texas Institute for Applied Environmental Research (TIAER), Tarleton State University, Member of the Texas A&M System, Stephenville, TX 76401, USANorwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, 1430 Ås, NorwayDepartment of Geology, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44240, USAThe effect of the projected 21st century climate change on water quality in Old Woman Creek (OWC) watershed was evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the precipitation and temperature projections from three best Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)l ensemble downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These three best GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, EC-EARTH) were identified as those closest to the multivariate ensemble average of twenty different GCM-driven SWAT simulations. Seasonal analysis was undertaken in historical (1985–2014), current to near future (2018–2045), mid-century (2046–2075), and late-century (2076–2100) climate windows. The hydrological model calibration was carried out using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm and pareto optimization. Simulations were made for stream flow and nine water quality variables (sediment, organic nitrogen, organic phosphorus, mineral phosphorus, chlorophyll a, carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus) of interest. The average of twenty different CMIP5-driven SWAT simulation results showed good correlation for all the 10 variables with the PRISM-driven SWAT simulation results in the historical climate window (1985–2014). For the historical period, the result shows an over-estimation of flow, sediment, and organic nitrogen from January to March in simulations with CMIP5 inputs, relative to simulations with PRISM input. For the other climate windows, the simulation results show a progressive increase in stream flow with peak flow month shifting from April to March. The expected seasonal changes in each water quality variable have implications for the OWC estuary and Lake Erie water quality.https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/3/50SWATPRISMCMIP5multi-objective evolutionary algorithm
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Israel A. Olaoye
Remegio B. Confesor
Joseph D. Ortiz
spellingShingle Israel A. Olaoye
Remegio B. Confesor
Joseph D. Ortiz
Impact of Seasonal Variation in Climate on Water Quality of Old Woman Creek Watershed Ohio Using SWAT
Climate
SWAT
PRISM
CMIP5
multi-objective evolutionary algorithm
author_facet Israel A. Olaoye
Remegio B. Confesor
Joseph D. Ortiz
author_sort Israel A. Olaoye
title Impact of Seasonal Variation in Climate on Water Quality of Old Woman Creek Watershed Ohio Using SWAT
title_short Impact of Seasonal Variation in Climate on Water Quality of Old Woman Creek Watershed Ohio Using SWAT
title_full Impact of Seasonal Variation in Climate on Water Quality of Old Woman Creek Watershed Ohio Using SWAT
title_fullStr Impact of Seasonal Variation in Climate on Water Quality of Old Woman Creek Watershed Ohio Using SWAT
title_full_unstemmed Impact of Seasonal Variation in Climate on Water Quality of Old Woman Creek Watershed Ohio Using SWAT
title_sort impact of seasonal variation in climate on water quality of old woman creek watershed ohio using swat
publisher MDPI AG
series Climate
issn 2225-1154
publishDate 2021-03-01
description The effect of the projected 21st century climate change on water quality in Old Woman Creek (OWC) watershed was evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the precipitation and temperature projections from three best Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)l ensemble downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These three best GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, EC-EARTH) were identified as those closest to the multivariate ensemble average of twenty different GCM-driven SWAT simulations. Seasonal analysis was undertaken in historical (1985–2014), current to near future (2018–2045), mid-century (2046–2075), and late-century (2076–2100) climate windows. The hydrological model calibration was carried out using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm and pareto optimization. Simulations were made for stream flow and nine water quality variables (sediment, organic nitrogen, organic phosphorus, mineral phosphorus, chlorophyll a, carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus) of interest. The average of twenty different CMIP5-driven SWAT simulation results showed good correlation for all the 10 variables with the PRISM-driven SWAT simulation results in the historical climate window (1985–2014). For the historical period, the result shows an over-estimation of flow, sediment, and organic nitrogen from January to March in simulations with CMIP5 inputs, relative to simulations with PRISM input. For the other climate windows, the simulation results show a progressive increase in stream flow with peak flow month shifting from April to March. The expected seasonal changes in each water quality variable have implications for the OWC estuary and Lake Erie water quality.
topic SWAT
PRISM
CMIP5
multi-objective evolutionary algorithm
url https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/3/50
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