| Summary: | Stipa breviflora, a dominant species of Chinese temperate grassland, is vulnerable to climate change. A quantitative description of the changes in the geographic distribution of S. breviflora under climate change can provide a reference for potential changes in Chinese temperate grassland and the necessary countermeasures to cope with climate change. In this study, the relationship between the geographic distribution of S. breviflora and the climate, and its inter-decadal change in geographic distribution and climatic suitability from 1961 to 2040 were investigated. The results showed that S. breviflora’s geographic distribution could be simulated very well by the MaxEnt model, and its climatic suitability could be divided into four levels—most suitable, medium suitable, less suitable, and unsuitable areas—based on its existence probability from the MaxEnt model. In the past 50 years, the total climate-suitable area for S. breviflora’s potential geographical distribution exhibited an obvious increase and a trend of northward expansion, which was larger than the current distribution area. The total climate-suitable area would increase by about 6.7% and decrease by 11.5% from 2011–2040 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively; however, the most suitable area increased and moved to western areas of Tibet, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The results revealed that the distribution area of S. breviflora still has greater potential for expansion.
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