Identification of exchange rate shocks with compositional data and written press

The evolution of exchange rates results from events that affect different countries differently, that is, asymmetric shocks. Being value ratios, exchange rates constitute what is known as compositional data. The compositional data analysis methodology transforms exchange rates in a way that ensures...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Gámez Velázquez, Daniel, Coenders, Germà
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Asociación para la Formación y la Investigación en Ciencias Económicas y Sociales 2020-01-01
Series:Finance, Markets and Valuation
Subjects:
Online Access:https://journalfmv.com/en/archive/2020/1/113588f955.html
Description
Summary:The evolution of exchange rates results from events that affect different countries differently, that is, asymmetric shocks. Being value ratios, exchange rates constitute what is known as compositional data. The compositional data analysis methodology transforms exchange rates in a way that ensures the validity of their subsequent statistical analysis. In this paper we submit the daily exchange rates of the US dollar, the yen, the pound sterling, the euro, the Brazilian real, and the yuan to transformation by centred log-ratios. We then use the residuals from a Box-Jenkins analysis to estimate shocks and represent them in statistical control charts for a simple visual identification of both significant revaluations and devaluations, and periods of greatest volatility, which we then relate to news stories in the written press.
ISSN:2530-3163