Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data

• Main Authors: Zian Zhuang, Shi Zhao, Qianying Lin, Peihua Cao, Yijun Lou, Lin Yang, Daihai He
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2020-05-01
• Series: International Journal of Infectious Diseases
• Subjects: Coronavirus disease 2019; COVID-19; Air travel data; Ascertainment rate
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220301387

As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the numbers of cases from Iran imported into other Middle Eastern countries were used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran. It was estimated that the total number of cases in Iran was 16 533 (95% confidence interval: 5925–35 538) by February 25, 2020, before the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.